1. Soccer (UEFA Champions League): Bayern Munich vs. Celtic
- Moneyline Odds:
- Bayern Munich to win: 1.17 (implied ~85% win chance)
- Draw: 10.0 (implied ~10% chance)
- Celtic to win: 19.0 (implied ~5% chance)
- Analysis:
- Bayern Munich is the overwhelming favorite (85% implied probability).
- A Celtic win or a draw are considered relatively unlikely outcomes.
- This Champions League match is among the most one-sided in the list.
2. Basketball (NBA): Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Moneyline Odds:
- LA Lakers to win: -189 (implied ~65–68% win chance)
- Portland Trail Blazers to win: +164 (implied ~32–35% chance)
- Analysis:
- The Lakers are favored (~65%+), but the matchup is more competitive than some others.
- Portland has a meaningful underdog shot (32–35%); not a blowout scenario.
3. Hockey (NHL): Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Moneyline Odds:
- Tampa Bay Lightning to win: -325 (implied ~76.5% win chance)
- Chicago Blackhawks to win: +260 (implied ~27.8% chance)
- Analysis:
- The Lightning are strong favorites with roughly a 76–77% implied chance.
- The Blackhawks, at around 23–24% when adjusting for the betting margin, face long odds.
4. Tennis (ATP Rio Open): Carlos Alcaraz vs. Mateus Alves
- Moneyline Odds:
- Carlos Alcaraz to win: 1.026 (implied ~97% win chance)
- Mateus Alves to win: 12.75 (implied ~7–8% chance)
- Analysis:
- Alcaraz is an extremely heavy favorite (97% implied probability).
- Alves, a wild card entrant, has under a 10% chance.
- This is the most one-sided matchup in the list—Alcaraz is expected to win almost every time.
5. Mixed Martial Arts (UFC Fight Night): Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong
- Moneyline Odds:
- Song Yadong to win: -240 (implied ~70–71% win chance)
- Henry Cejudo to win: +210 (implied ~29–30% chance)
- Analysis:
- Song Yadong is the clear favorite (~70% chance).
- Cejudo, a former champion, still has a considerable (30%) underdog shot.
- While favored, Song’s edge is not as large as that of Alcaraz or Bayern Munich in their respective events.
Highest-Probability Outcomes
- Carlos Alcaraz (~97% chance) — most lopsided matchup.
- Bayern Munich (~85% chance)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (~76.5% chance)
- Song Yadong (~70% chance)
- Los Angeles Lakers (~65% chance)
Alcaraz and Bayern Munich stand out as the heaviest favorites, while the Lakers and Song Yadong, despite being favored, face relatively more balanced matchups. These probabilities, derived from moneyline odds, reflect the betting market’s confidence levels in each potential outcome.
Upcoming Sports Events and Implied Win Probabilities
Below we examine five upcoming sports events this week across different sports, with their moneyline odds from Pinnacle (or similar sources) and the implied probabilities of the most likely outcomes. We highlight which events have the highest probability outcomes based on those odds. All odds are referenced in decimal (for soccer, a draw is possible) and the implied win percentage of the favorite is noted.
1. Soccer (UEFA Champions League): Bayern Munich vs. Celtic
Moneyline Odds:
- Bayern Munich to win: 1.17 (implied ~85% win chance) (Feb 18, 2025 « UEFA – Champions League « International « Odds Math)
- Draw: 10.0 (implied ~10% chance) (Feb 18, 2025 « UEFA – Champions League « International « Odds Math)
- Celtic to win: 19.0 (implied ~5% chance) (Feb 18, 2025 « UEFA – Champions League « International « Odds Math)
Analysis: Bayern Munich is an overwhelming favorite, with roughly an 85% implied probability to win on the moneyline. The most likely outcome is a Bayern victory. Celtic’s chances are very slim (~5%), and even a draw is not highly expected (~10%). This Champions League matchup is one of the most one-sided, indicating Bayern is heavily favored to win (Feb 18, 2025 « UEFA – Champions League « International « Odds Math).
2. Basketball (NBA): Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Moneyline Odds:
- LA Lakers to win: -189 (implied ~65–68% win chance) (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction by Proven Computer Model [2/20/2025])
- Portland Trail Blazers to win: +164 (implied ~32–35% chance) (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction by Proven Computer Model [2/20/2025])
Analysis: The Lakers are favored to win, with roughly a 65%+ implied probability. This means the Lakers are expected to win more often than not (the most likely outcome is a Lakers victory), but the game is not a foregone conclusion. The Trail Blazers, at around 32–35% chance, are underdogs but not out of contention. In summary, the Lakers are solid favorites, though not nearly as dominant as some other examples here (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction by Proven Computer Model [2/20/2025]).
3. Hockey (NHL): Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Moneyline Odds:
- Tampa Bay Lightning to win: -325 (implied ~76.5% win chance) (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight)
- Chicago Blackhawks to win: +260 (implied ~27.8% chance) (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight)
Analysis: The Lightning are a strong favorite, with about a 76–77% implied probability to win at home (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight). The Blackhawks’ chances (~23–24% when adjusting for the betting margin) are much lower. The most likely outcome is a Lightning victory. This high probability for Tampa Bay highlights a major mismatch, consistent with Tampa’s superior record and Chicago’s struggles (the odds translate to an implied win chance of 76.5% for Tampa Bay) (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight).
4. Tennis (ATP Rio Open): Carlos Alcaraz vs. Mateus Alves
Moneyline Odds:
- Carlos Alcaraz to win: 1.026 (implied ~97% win chance) (H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Mateus Alves in Rio De Janeiro …)
- Mateus Alves to win: 12.75 (implied ~7–8% chance) (H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Mateus Alves in Rio De Janeiro …)
Analysis: Alcaraz, a top-ranked player, is an extremely heavy favorite in this first-round match. His odds of 1.026 imply roughly a 97% chance of winning (H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Mateus Alves in Rio De Janeiro …). In other words, Alcaraz is expected to win almost every time in this matchup – the most likely outcome by far. Alves, a wild card entry, has under a 10% implied chance. This is the highest-probability outcome among the events listed here, illustrating a near-certain expected win for Alcaraz.
5. Mixed Martial Arts (UFC Fight Night): Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong
Moneyline Odds:
- Song Yadong to win: -240 (implied ~70–71% win chance) (Henry Cejudo Vs. Song Yadong: – Fight Card, Betting Odds, Start Time)
- Henry Cejudo to win: +210 (implied ~29–30% chance) (Henry Cejudo Vs. Song Yadong: – Fight Card, Betting Odds, Start Time)
Analysis: Song Yadong is favored to win this bantamweight bout, with about a 70% implied probability as the most likely outcome (Henry Cejudo Vs. Song Yadong: – Fight Card, Betting Odds, Start Time). Cejudo, a former champion, is the underdog at roughly 30%. While Song is a clear favorite, an upset by Cejudo is not impossible given his +210 odds. In probability terms, Song is expected to win roughly 7 out of 10 times under these odds. This fight, though favoring Song, is more competitive than some others on this list.
Highest Probability Outcomes Highlighted
Among these events, the tennis match (Alcaraz vs. Alves) stands out with the highest implied win probability for the favorite (~97%). This indicates an almost certain expectation that Alcaraz will win. The Bayern vs. Celtic soccer game is next, with Bayern given around an 85% chance to win. Other favorites like the Lightning (~76.5% chance) and Song Yadong (~70% chance) also have strong odds in their favor (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight) (Henry Cejudo Vs. Song Yadong: – Fight Card, Betting Odds, Start Time), while the Lakers (~65% chance) are favored by a more moderate margin (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction by Proven Computer Model [2/20/2025]).
In summary, Bayern Munich and Carlos Alcaraz are involved in the most one-sided matchups this week (highest win probabilities for the favorites), whereas the Lakers and Song Yadong, despite being favored, are in relatively more competitive contests. These probabilities derived from moneyline odds help illustrate which outcomes are considered most likely by bookmakers, with higher percentages indicating a more heavily favored team/player. All in all, the higher the implied probability, the more confident the market is in that outcome – and we see that clearly with Alcaraz’s and Bayern’s expected wins.
Sources: The odds and implied percentages are based on Pinnacle (or similar) odds for each event (Feb 18, 2025 « UEFA – Champions League « International « Odds Math) (Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction by Proven Computer Model [2/20/2025]) (How to Pick the Lightning vs. Blackhawks Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – January 28 | The Post-Searchlight) (H2H, prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Mateus Alves in Rio De Janeiro …) (Henry Cejudo Vs. Song Yadong: – Fight Card, Betting Odds, Start Time). Each citation corresponds to the source of the odds for the respective matchup.
